Table of Contents
Media Strategy....................................................................................8
Multiples analysis ..............................................................................9
Performance analysis ......................................................................16
Advertising reached the trough in summer '09.............................21
Revenue and EPS outlook...............................................................25
How we screen our stocks..............................................................27
Historic discount..............................................................................27
H1 performance and company outlook..........................................30
Market share analysis and outlook ................................................33
Cost cutting is now a given.............................................................36
Capital structure and use of cash ..................................................38
Media macro data.............................................................................44
Economics and Advertising............................................................46
Valuation...........................................................................................47
Valuations.........................................................................................51
Performance .....................................................................................52
Earnings............................................................................................53
Changes in estimates, valuation, ratings and risks......................55
Aegis .................................................................................................56
Antena 3 TV ......................................................................................57
BSkyB................................................................................................57
Daily Mail & General Trust...............................................................58
Havas.................................................................................................58
Informa..............................................................................................59
ITV......................................................................................................59
JCDecaux..........................................................................................60
Johnston Press Plc..........................................................................61
Lagardère..........................................................................................61
Mediaset............................................................................................62
M6......................................................................................................62
MTG...................................................................................................63
PagesJaunes ....................................................................................63
Pearson.............................................................................................64
ProSiebenSat.1.................................................................................64
Publicis Groupe................................................................................65
Reed ..................................................................................................66
Reed NV ............................................................................................66
Seat Pagine Gialle ............................................................................66
Schibsted..........................................................................................67
Sky Deutschland ..............................................................................67
Telecinco...........................................................................................68
TF1.....................................................................................................68
Thomson Reuters Corp ...................................................................69
Trinity Mirror.....................................................................................70
United Business Media....................................................................70
Vivendi ..............................................................................................71
Wolters Kluwer.................................................................................71
Yell.....................................................................................................72
Valuation Methodology and Risks................................................102