2010年2月欧洲传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月欧洲传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：德意志银行
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：54
        【目录或简介】：

Table of contents
Antena 3 Page 03
Eutelsat Communications Page 06
IPSOS Page 07
Publicis Page 08
Reed Elsevier (UK) Page 14
SES Page 27
Telecinco Page 34
TF1 Page 37

Reed Elsevier – FY-09 results – Legal pressure, inflection point elsewhere
In our 8-Dec-09 note we outlined the need for a clear strategy, in particular a route
map to fix Legal, losing market share to Thomson. This didn’t come in the FY-09
results. A plan, if it comes, would be positive for the rating in our view – and with
“Rump” Legal margins down >800bps from 2008 to 2010E, we believe a plan is
needed. On our analysis, the autonomous cost increase in Rump Legal, 2008 to
2010, is around £170m, or 15%. This “must” help improve performance, but it is
very reasonable for the market to seek some explanation of where that cost is
going.
More positively, at just 20% of the group, problem Rump Legal is now getting to
the point where we can ignore it. For the rest of the business, 2010 should be an
inflection point – with better growth in 2011 than in 2010 as the cycle turns. The
shares are undervalued on 11x 2011E EPS (a figure that we have maintained -
breaking a long downgrade cycle). BUY.
Publicis - 2009 EBITA, net income and EPS in line with top-end expectations
After adjustment for E10m extra restructuring, 2009 EBITA / EPS were exactly in
line with our top end forecast. Guidance of stable 2010 margins at 15% is a
minimum, and predicated on only a +0.5% organic revenue assumption. As
revenues accelerate past original expectations, we see scope for Publicis to beat
expectations on both top line and margin this year. Our 2010/11 EPS is raised
+1%. Price weakness provides an attractive entry point. Buy.
More broadly the agency reporting season is showing 1) revenue recovery
(Publicis guiding to growth this year, Omnicom (often cautious) pointing to
revenues up from Q2), 2) Margin potential – guidance from Publicis as above is
conservative and incorporates some dual running costs from ERP, while Omnicom
guidance reflects its very impressive performance in defending margins in 2009. In
a subdued revenue environment we expect agencies overall will demonstrate the
benefit to margins of the hard work done on costs in 2009.
TF1 - FY 2009 results – cautious outlook. We favour ITV and ProSieben
TF1 reported FY09 group revenues of E2,365m (-9% y-o-y) ahead of our E2,324m
est (and ahead of -11% guidance). Q4 revenue TF1 channel ad revenue was up
+1% (DBe 0.8%). The revenue beat was driven by Other - E935m (DBe E899m).
Group EBIT was E101m (vs E85m est), with a stronger outcome in Eurosport Int’l,
Production & Publishing. Group savings of E74m beat the E60m target. TF1
guidance is for +2% growth in group revenues in 2010. This looks conservative,
but given ongoing price pressure in French TV we had anticipated a relatively
cautious statement. M6's recent outlook commentary was similarly cautious.
Management has at least acknowledged the positive impact of favourable revenue
comps in H1 this year; while emphasising that visibility is weak, and that the
market is generally difficult, it has also stated that the early days of February have
been "promising". Our current estimates assume +3% group revenue growth, with
+3.5% for the core channel. Our 2010 EPS rises 8% to reflect a higher 2009
revenues and EBIT base. 2011 estimates are broadly unchanged. We maintain a
Hold. Our favoured stocks within TV are ITV (Buy, GBP 52.2, tgt 65) and
ProSieben (Buy, EUR 11.06, tgt 12.20).

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 传媒行业 Expectations 研究报告 行业 欧洲

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