2010年5月中国证券市场投资策略报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年5月中国证券市场投资策略报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：122
        【目录或简介】：

Key investment theme: We stay cautious on MSCI China for the next few
months. We believe MSCI China could remain weak in the coming months
because: (a) additional tightening measures focusing on the property and
FAI areas; (b) a relatively tight liquidity situation in China as banks may be
asked to lend less than their original quota in 2Q FY10 to make allowance
for the over-lending in 1Q FY10. M2 growth rate dropped from 29.7%Y/Y
in Nov-09 to 22.5%Y/Y in Mar-10 vs. China’s FY10 M2 growth target of
17%; and (c) MSCI China’s earnings growth momentum could have peaked
in 1Q10. China’s GDP growth in 1Q10 could have peaked at 11.9% Y/Y,
and at 13.1% Q/Q saar, and is expected to moderate from here. Despite our
short-term cautious view, we firmly believe in China’s strong medium-term
growth prospects, and recommend waiting for a better entry point until the
above concerns are addressed before buying secular growth sectors.
• Non-consensus calls: We expect H-shares to outperform A-shares.
• China model portfolio adjustments: We are bullish on: (1) new economy
stocks such as Baidu, Netease, and China High Speed Transmission. China
is aiming at shifting from labor-intensive processing industries, energyintensive
and/or highly-pollutive industries to high-tech manufacturing and
strategic new industries such as new materials, 3G equipment, biotechnology,
information network, and new energy sectors. These new
economy sectors should benefit from the government’s supportive policies,
and are largely immune to the on-going tightening policies; (2) expressways
with good dividend yield support; (3) select consumer staples (Mengniu,
Yurun, and Huabao) after their recent correction; (4) menswear with strong
secular growth in the next five years; and (5) insurance on rising premium
growth and low penetration rate. We take a slightly bullish stance on banks,
mainly through our OW position in medium-sized banks which have
completed fund-raising activities, and boast of fast NIM expansion. On the
other hand, we stay cautious on property, FAI-related sectors, home
appliance, and energy. In our model portfolio, we increase our weighting in
telecoms to neutral, mainly by adding weight in Unicom, but decrease our
weighting in healthcare, and airlines from OW to neutral on rich valuations
after their recent strong performance.
Table of Contents
Market strategy.........................................................................4
April’s correction triggered by the property crack-down.............................................5
China market’s two paradoxes in FY10.......................................................................9
Stay cautious on MSCI China in the coming months ................................................10
Sector views...............................................................................................................19
OW: New economy stocks, expressways, consumer staples, menswear,
insurance and medium sized banks............................................................................19
UW: Property, FAI-related plays, home appliance sector, energy sectors.................23
Increase our weighting in telecom to neutral, but decrease our weighting in
healthcare and airlines to neutral ...............................................................................24
China model portfolio (CMP) adjustments ................................................................24
MSCI China performance overview ..........................................................................27
CMP return-risk profile..............................................................................................30
Macroeconomic views ...........................................................32
Macro policy to focus on “flexible” and “targeted” approach ...................................32
PBoC increases RRR again to withdraw excess liquidity..........................................32
Tightening measures focused on assets inflation .......................................................33
Stronger-than-expected 1Q10 GDP ...........................................................................34
Information ................................................................................................................35
Manufacturing PMIs remain solid growth .................................................................35
FAI growth rate to moderate......................................................................................36
Non-consensus calls...................................................................................................37
China’s trade balance returned to surplus ..................................................................37

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关键词：中国证券市场 投资策略报告 证券市场 投资策略 市场投资 投资 中国证券

Autos .......................................................................................39
What is changing .......................................................................................................39
Information ................................................................................................................43
FY09 results review of Chinese auto companies .......................................................43
Non-consensus calls...................................................................................................45
We maintain our positive view on China autos' FY10 and medium-term
growth prospects ........................................................................................................49
We turn cautious on China’s passenger vehicle sector compared to our
earlier bullish stance ..................................................................................................52
Consumer................................................................................54
Staples posted strong FY09 results as expected.........................................................54
Changes to recommendations: Mostly downgrades...................................................56
2010 and 2011 outlook...............................................................................................57
Company Write-Ups ..................................................................................................60
China Huiyuan Juice: A turnaround story; Upgrade to OW......................................60
China Resources Enterprise: Guidance is positive but in the price, maintain
Neutral .......................................................................................................................61
China Yurun: Lower expectations on hog price inflation; downgrade to Neutral .....62
Hengan: Personal hygiene sales growth to resume ....................................................63
Tingyi: First sign of margin erosion in 4Q09, downgrade to UW.............................63

Tsingtao: 2009 results slightly below our estimates ..................................................67
Want Want: Existing product sales mixed; new business initiatives’
visibility still low .......................................................................................................69
Energy .....................................................................................70
CNOOC: No surprise - on track for oil bulls .............................................................70
PetroChina: Results in line with our expectations - potential for consensus
downgrades ................................................................................................................72
Sinopec Corp – H: Weak refining and strong petrochemical yield good
results overall.............................................................................................................74
Financials: Banks...................................................................76
More policy hit to the sentiment ................................................................................76
Changes......................................................................................................................76
Information ................................................................................................................82
Key stock highlights ..................................................................................................85
Industrial .................................................................................86
Nine Dragon Paper (2689 HK, OW)..........................................................................86
Lee & Man Paper (2314 HK, OW) ............................................................................87
Shandong Chenming Paper (1812 HK, OW).............................................................87
Sustained high level of global pulp prices .................................................................88
Infrastructure ..........................................................................89
What’s new? ..............................................................................................................89
What’s changing? ......................................................................................................91
Real estate ..............................................................................93
Near-term overhang creates buying opportunity........................................................93
Information ................................................................................................................95
Non-consensus calls...................................................................................................97
Technology: Hardware...........................................................99
What is changing?......................................................................................................99
Information ..............................................................................................................103
Telecom.................................................................................105
Industry news...........................................................................................................105
Update on subscriber data........................................................................................105
Transportation ......................................................................106
Key investment theme..............................................................................................106
What is changing .....................................................................................................106
Utilities ..................................................................................108
What is changing?....................................................................................................108
Dongfang and Goldwind: Margin improved, backlog surged..................................108
Vestas: More overseas opportunities for CHSTE ....................................................109
Information ..............................................................................................................112
J.P. Morgan China Equity Research Team.........................117

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