发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月英国宏观经济和利率策略
【作者】：摩根斯坦利
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：32
【目录或简介】：
UK Economics and
Interest Rate Strategy
The Only Way Is Up? The
Potential for Higher Inflation
after a Temporary Reprieve
Investment conclusion: Beyond the next two years,
we should be worried about high inflation outcomes.
While pension fund demand means that UK inflation
protection is already demandingly priced relative to the
MPC’s inflation target, we think that the downside risk of
being long protection is limited due to the persistence of
this demand.
In-depth look at UK inflation prospects: We take a
fresh look at UK inflation prospects at two different time
horizons: over the next two years and beyond two years.
Downside risks to our inflation forecast over the coming
year lead us to push back the date for the first BoE rate
rise to 1Q11, but there is plenty of scope for further
‘inflation shocks’ and these seem to be largely on the
upside. Prepare for a bumpy ride.
In the longer term, we identify largely upside risks. We
don’t think that the inflation target will be raised by
choice, but we see a relatively high risk that several
pressures will make the 2% target untenable. These
include longer-term pressures on commodity prices and
demography.
Consensus may be too complacent on the upside
risks: Consensus for 2011-14 is for inflation to average
2.0%. We raise our own average forecast for 2011-15
from 2.0% to 2.4%, reflecting the expectation that some
of these inflation pressures will come through, with the
Bank of England ultimately steering inflation back to
target. However, it is the period beyond 2014/15 where
we are most concerned about a scenario where the
inflation target becomes untenable.
Trade recommendations: We recommend being
tactically long 30y UK breakevens, as well as buying
0-5% UK RPI inflation collars.