发帖
雷达卡
Revising down near term oil
J Clarke
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6371
j.clarke@db.com
Tony Lee
Research Analyst
(852) 2203 6239
tony.lee@db.com
We cut our 2009E and 2010E Brent oil prices by 21% and 4%
DB’s oil strategy team has cut its 2009 and 2010 oil price estimates to
US$47.5/bbl and US$55/bbl respectively. Long-term prices remain unchanged at
US$80/bbl in 2011 escalating by US$5/bbl thereafter.
Deutsche Bank AG/Hong Kong
All prices are those current at the end of the previous trading session unless otherwise indicated. Prices are sourced from local
exchanges via Reuters, Bloomberg and other vendors. Data is sourced from Deutsche Bank and subject companies. Deutsche
Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors should be aware that the firm
may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision. Independent, third-party research (IR) on certain companies covered by DBSI's research
is available to customers of DBSI in the United States at no cost. Customers can access IR at
http://gm.db.com/IndependentResearch or by calling 1-877-208-6300. DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE
LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1.
Industry Update
Top picks
Sinopec-H (0386.HK),HKD5.39 Buy
Companies featured
PetroChina (0857.HK),HKD7.26 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 14.1 9.4 17.5
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.7 4.9 7.1
Price/book (x) 3.4 1.5 1.4
Sinopec-H (0386.HK),HKD5.39 Buy
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 12.0 15.0 4.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 6.8 8.7 2.9
Price/book (x) 3.2 1.3 1.0
CNPC-HK (0135.HK),HKD2.74 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 15.7 5.8 62.3
EV/EBITDA (x) 5.5 4.5 14.6
Price/book (x) 1.6 0.8 0.8
CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK),HKD7.68 Hold
2007A 2008E 2009E
P/E (x) 12.7 7.8 15.0
EV/EBITDA (x) 7.5 4.5 7.3
Price/book (x) 4.2 1.9 1.8
Global Markets Research Company
Slower economic growth = lower oil demand growth, now -0.7mb/d for 09E
DB has revised down its global oil demand growth estimates for 2009 from
-0.5mmbbl/day to -0.7mmbbl/day based lower global economic growth estimates.
Oil demand growth in China remains at +0.2mmbbl/day, however oil demand in
the OECD countries has been revised down 0.2mmbbl/d to -1.17mmbbl/day. We
believe gasoline and gas/diesel fuel consumption are most vulnerable to
downward revision. Our current estimates imply the oil price to reach trough value
in 4Q09 where it will average US$40/bbl, then strengthen going forward.
Longer term dynamics still intact for oil
DB estimates oil prices to now recover sooner, increasing from 1Q10. We expect
the oil price to increase in 2011 reflecting a recovery in the economy and for oil
demand supply dynamics to tighten once again. Our long term price assumption is
US$80/bbl in 2011, which increases US$5/bbl yoy thereafter.
We prefer integrated oils over upstream pure plays – preference for Sinopec
We assume a 25% cut in gasoline and diesel prices from 1 January 2009 and a
further % cut for 2010. Despite this, we expect the near term weakness in oil
prices to improve the profitability of the refining segments for the integrated oil
companies. The higher complexity of Sinopec’s refinery portfolio should enable
the company to realize a higher per barrel refiner margin relative to PetroChina. As
a result, we prefer Sinopec on a 12mth view as we believe its refinery operations
will benefit the greatest from improved refining earnings as a result of the weaker
near term oil price environment. However given we expect poor 4Q08 refining
results for SNP (due to high levels of expensive crude inventory accumulated
during the year which will be consumed in 4Q), January 09 is a better time to gain
exposure. We remain neutral on PetroChina on valuation. We also remain neutral
on the upstream pure plays.
Top sector pick is Sinopec (Buy, PT=HK$6.6/share)
Our preferred China oil and gas exposure is Sinopec. We have a Hold for PTR
(PT=HK$6.2/share) on valuation grounds. We have a Hold on both CNOOC and
CNPC-HK given our preference for the integrated oils and limited valuation upside.
We value the integrated oils using sum of the parts. We value the E&P operations
for all companies (including the upstream pure plays) on a DCF based on DB’s
production and 2P reserve estimates for each company. We value the refining
segments using a DCF as we believe this best captures the fluctuating nature of
company refiner margins. We value the other segments through earnings
multiples. Details of company specific valuations are detailed in the company
sections. Risks to our view include 1) oil price volatility, 2) changes to government
tax, pricing, VAT, and subsidy policy. Potential exploration success is a positive risk
for these companies.
Oil price revisions
Cutting near term prices leaving long term unchanged
Our Global commodity team has reduced its 2009 and 2010 oil price estimates by 21% and
4% respectively to US$47.5/bbl for 2009E and US$55/bbl in 2010 (see Figure 1). DB’s longterm
price remains unchanged at US $80/bbl for 2011 rising US$5/bbl yoy there after.
Key reasons for the change (from DB’s Chief Energy Economist Adam Sieminski) are detailed
below. Please see the Commodities Weekly dated 5 December 2008 for further details.
The overall economic outlook continues to deteriorate. DB now estimates 2009 global
GDP growth of 0.2%.
Although the US DOE, IEA, and OPEC have significantly cut their global oil demand
forecasts, we remain convinced there is more pain ahead then the consensus expects.
We are now forecasting a 0.7mmb/d drop in 2009 world oil demand.
We would view events today as reminiscent of 1998 and 2001 when world growth and
crude oil prices collapsed. At those times, OPEC announced cumulative production cuts
of approximately 5mmb/d, which occurred over a 12 month period.
We believe OPEC will cut quotas throughout most of next year. However, we believe
production cuts will not immediately rescue the oil price and consequently we now
target WTI crude oil prices hitting rock bottom at the end of next year.
Once the global economy stabilizes, oil prices can too, but the timing of this
development is probably a year away, in our view.
History would suggest that crude oil prices can rally between 35-80% when world
growth starts to recover- and for this rally to occur within a six month period. This could
imply crude oil prices back up at USD75/bbl in the second half of 2010.
Valuation and earnings impact
The impact on the valuation and earnings of the E&P stocks under our coverage is
summarized below. Please refer to the company specific section for further detail on our
earnings and valuation changes.
281402.pdf
(565.13 KB, 需要: 500 个论坛币)
提升卡
置顶卡
沉默卡
变色卡
抢沙发
千斤顶
显身卡
京公网安备 11010802022788号
