法国农业信贷银行：欧洲建材行业研究报告2009年5月

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CONTENTS
Summary 3
I— Performance and valuation 5
􀁑 Sector has already outpaced the market 5
􀁑 Individual stock performance 6
􀁑 Valuation: replacement values 6
􀁑 Risk and catalysts vs fair value 8
􀁑 More adjustments to our estimates 11
II— How much help from commodity prices? 12
􀁑 Varying impact on companies this year 12
􀁑 Fuel market prices down massively, not power 13
􀁑 The biggest losers should gain most, unless… 19
􀁑 … they have markets with weaker pricing power 21
􀁑 No bet on 2010 21
III— Too early to celebrate price stability? 22
􀁑 Care needed in extrapolating Q1-09 pricing 22
􀁑 New capacities and lower cost have yet to put pressure 22
􀁑 No cheap imports on a massive scale, but risk is still there 24
􀁑 Where we see higher price risk in H2-09 and 2010 30
􀁑 Pricing beyond cement 34
IV— Differential impact, arbitrage opportunities 36
􀁑 Volumes still the main risk for H2-09 36
􀁑 Our preferences in the sector 38
V— Any more consolidation? 40
􀁑 Any more capital hikes? 40
􀁑 Could the crisis lead to further industry consolidation? 40
VI— Appendix: assumptions and indicators 42
VII— Company tables 45

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关键词：行业研究报告 研究报告 行业研究 建材行业 Differential 研究报告 信贷 欧洲 法国 建材