德意志银行：欧洲传媒行业研究报告2009年9月

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European TV ...still selective value - but also some stocks to avoid
The market is discounting a strong rebound in ad revenues as comps ease, yet
even aggressive recovery scenarios indicate limited price upside. Nevertheless, TV
stocks tend to continue performing beyond the first adspend upgrades, which we
expect to see shortly. We believe value exists in Mediaset, ProSieben and in M6.
Downside remains in ITV and Spanish TV stocks where ad recovery/margin
assumptions seem unrealistic in the face of continuing structural pressures. We
see M6 as one of the strongest European broadcasters. The French TV market has
been one of the hardest hit by the downturn, yet the elimination of all State TV
adspend by end 2011, should mean there are positives on the upswing. With rival
TF1 enjoying a stronger ad market position in 2010 (post M&A), its advertising
duopoly with M6 should have more pricing power. We derive a E21 TP using 1.8x
2011E EV/Sales (in line with 18% TV margins), and a 20% premium to our
standard TV 15x PE to reflect further deregulation in 2011. We initiated with a Buy.
Professional publishers: value emerging as the downswing continues
Professional publishers are inevitably late cycle, but at least in places their
downswing has now been evident for 12 months and hence there are arguments
to look thru it. Mid-cap "more/earlier-cyclicals" like Informa and UBM (both Buy) are
attractive, while the quality of the franchises at Thomson-Reuters, and a
shallower/sooner trough in its Markets operation argues for a Buy, with a C$42
target. Thematically, H1 results showed instance of “long in the tooth” business
models suffering in the cyclical downturn (e.g. Reed Elsevier’s Martindale Hubble):
we expect another wave of portfolio pruning as management teams try to get
back ahead of the structural curve.
JC Decaux – writing on the wall – BUY, E20 tgt
JC Decaux increased its interest in Wall AG (German outdoor advertising) from
40% to 90.1% (possibly 4 months needed for regulatory clearance). We estimate
the group may be paying E75-100m for this 50% interest. We see this as a very
attractive deal for JC Decaux. Wall improves the group's position in Germany
(largest ad market in Europe), and enhances the overall quality of the outdoor
portfolio here. There are very few structural growth situations in European media
at present. JC Decaux is one of these: it is also a geared play on advertising
recovery over the next two years, with outdoor typically recovering faster than the
ad market in an upturn.
Yell – remodelling for a rights issue – BUY, 125p tgt.
Yell commenced a capital restructuring process in June. The recent share price
rally increases the likelihood of a successful refinancing from an equity-holder's
standpoint. Our forecasts now assume a 5 for 2 £600m rights issue at 30p, with
10% interest costs. In this scenario we est. 2010/11 EPS at 12.3p/8.2p. This is
necessarily provisional, but is at least a stab at valuing Yell post- a capital
restructuring. Our scenario implies a theoretical ex-rights price of 43p, vs 75p
currently: post–rights, we estimate Yell would still only be on 3.5x 2010 P/E, 5.2x
2011. We believe it should be able to trade up to 7x P/E 2011. This implies a 57p
target post-rights, which translates to a 125p target pre-rights. Buy retained.

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