2010年4月欧洲传媒行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年4月欧洲传媒行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根大通
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：31
        【目录或简介】：
H110 ad outlook is stronger than expected. After a slow start in January,
TV NAR y/y growth rate has accelerated dramatically in February/March
driven by: i) favorable comparable basis with Q109 (family of channel NAR
-16% y/y on average); ii) the improved economic outlook; iii) historically
low TV CPTs (the cost of ad spots for advertisers), in particular in the UK
and Spain where TV CPTs were lower than national newspapers. The
outlook given by some FTAs for NAR so far this year has been surprisingly
good: i) ITV said NAR is up 17% in March and +15-20% in April; ii)
MediasetYTD NAR is up c5% y/y; iii) Telecinco-up 20% in Jan, 40% in
Feb. JCDecaux expects organic revenue growth of +5% in Q110.
• We increase dramatically Q1, Q2 and FY10 NAR estimates: we now
expect, on average, FTA TVs’ NAR (family of channels) to grow by
+11.3%, +15.8% and +10.1% respectively (previous ests +4.8%, +7.4% and
5.2%; note MTG ests are unchanged). Significant discrepancies remains
across Europe as '09 comparable basis differs significantly. We expect T5,
A3 and ITV to post the highest ’10 NAR with y/y growth of +21.6%,
+18.4% and +11.0% respectively. On average our new EPS estimates are
18.8% higher than consensus in ’10 and 8.3% higher in '11.
• We continue to see share price upside in the short term driven by EPS
revisions. However structural issues have not disappeared and will
likely cap multiples upside. On our new bullish estimates FTA TV trades at
27% PE11 premium to the overall market (in line with 27% historically).
After applying the structural discount, on average FTA TV trades at a 7%
PE11 discount to historical average which is not attracting enough.
• Mediaset (DivYield 10E of 4% and value creation in Pay TV) remains
our FTA TV top pick, and among cyclical media we continue to prefer
JCDecaux, UBM and PagesJaunes: in our view these stocks offer
exposure to the adcycle as well as some defensive characteristics (e.g.
attractive DPS yield) or structural growth (i.e. outdoor, emerging markets).

Table of Contents
Price performance....................................................................3
Multiples....................................................................................6
Most FTA TVs still trade at a premium to the Media sector and to the overall market
....................................................................................................................................6
We prefer to look at PE11 instead of PE10 as ’10E EPS are still at depressed levels .7
We factor in the impact of the structural changes in the FTA TV industry in the PE11
analysis ........................................................................................................................7
JPM EPS estimates vs Bloomberg consensus..............................................................9
Advertising outlook................................................................10
Q409 advertising revenue was better than expected for FTA TV..............................10
Data for the first half of ’10 are significantly better than expected............................11
We increase dramatically Q1, Q2 and FY ’10 NAR estimates for all FTA TVs .......12
Antena 3 TV.............................................................................15
ITV............................................................................................15
M6 ............................................................................................16
Mediaset ..................................................................................16
MTG .........................................................................................17
ProSiebenSat.1 .......................................................................17
Telecinco.................................................................................18
TF1...........................................................................................18
Valuation Methodology and Risks ........................................19

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