发布时间： 来源：人大经济论坛

【出版时间及名称】：2010年2月印尼宏观经济研究报告
【作者】：汇丰银行
【文件格式】：pdf
【页数】：28
【目录或简介】：
The Indonesian sovereign is heading to
investment grade
􀀗 Further IDR strength is supported by a
breadth of cyclical factors as well as
permissive FX policy
􀀗 Local Rates: Buy 10-20yr IndoGBs on
attractive valuation, onshore/offshore
demand. Credit: Long ROI versus ROP
􀀗 We scale down our inflation forecasts
on cyclical factors, and push back our
rate hike expectations to Q3 this year
Bright future
The Indonesian sovereign can achieve investment status by
2011, if the external profile and public sector finances sustain
their existing trajectories. So Indonesia is sitting in a sweet spot,
across the macro, currency, and bond perspectives.
On the macro-economy, the recovery that began in 2009
should continue through this year, with growth rotating from
being private and government consumption driven, towards
a more investment driven recovery. The inflation outlook is
looking more benign as subsidy reform has been pushed
back, and as such, we scale back our forecasts for rate hikes
this year to 100bp starting in September. For the currency, a
strong trade surplus, a more benign inflation outlook, strong
portfolio flows, and permissive FX policy should keep IDR
strengthening. Only late in the year would we start watching
late-cycle risks more carefully. For the bonds, both USD
ROI and local IndoGBs are benefitting from a global
reallocation back into EM fixed income, with domestic
issuance receiving an additional benefit of very high real
yields attracting both on- and offshore investors alike.
We do recognize that following last year’s positive electoral
outcome, expectations may be set too high by some foreign
investors and that there may be some disappointment in the
pace of reform. However, we emphasize that longer-term
structural improvement is already set in motion, that reform
will come surely if slowly, and that near-term political
volatility is not a substantial threat to local markets.