2010年3月欧洲石油开采设备行业研究报告

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【出版时间及名称】：2010年3月欧洲石油开采行业研究报告
        【作者】：摩根斯坦利
        【文件格式】：pdf
        【页数】：45
        【目录或简介】：
In this report, we present a detailed, bottom-up
analysis of upcoming Engineering & Construction
contracts in the Middle East and North Africa. We were
surprised by two things. 1) The value of planned contract
awards is bigger than we thought, currently adding up to
$432bn. This equals roughly 6 years of order intake at
the record level of 2009. Even if some of these projects
are eventually cancelled, this underpins several years of
strong order flow in this market. This amount does not
take into account projects in Iran and Iraq which would
add another $162bn and $134bn respectively. 2) The
bidding activity of European contractors is higher than
we expected, which leads us to upgrade our earnings
estimates.
What’s new. We have analysed 980 E&C contracts
awarded in the MENA region since 1998 as well as 887
upcoming contracts. This has allowed us to estimate in
detail the size of the addressable market, historical
market shares and bidding success rates. We also show
in detail who is bidding on what.
Tecnicas Reunidas is our preferred play. It is a
pure-play onshore E&C company that derives
approximately 50% of revenues from the Middle East.
We believe the company is well positioned to benefit
from the strong outlook in this market and initiate with an
Overweight. See our separate report Preferred Play on
Middle East E&C Market, published today.
Upgrade Saipem and Technip to Overweight. These
firms are also likely to be key beneficiaries: we estimate
they are currently bidding on contracts worth $34bn and
$62bn respectively in the MENA region and hence see
potential for order intake to surprise positively. For
Saipem, we believe consensus expectations for 2011/12
do not fully reflect the likely revenues from the newbuild
offshore construction vessels.
Downgrade Acergy and Subsea 7 to Equal-weight
after strong performance.

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