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以下是John Taylor的介绍 (此次会议讨论的所有9篇文献，免费下载地址，回复可见):
The main purpose of the conference is to put forth and discuss a set of policy recommendations that are consistent with and encourage a more rules-based policy for the Fed, and would thus improve economic performance, especially in comparison with the past decade. The idea is to base these recommendations as much as possible on economic theory, on data, and especially on the history of the past century. It is natural to do so at the time of the Centennial of the Fed.
The recommendations in the technical papers prepared in advance of theconference have set the stage for the discussion and the panels to come. Hereis quick summary of the recommendations of the papers prepared inadvance.
In his paper for the first session, John Cochrane recommends three things:first that the short-term interest rate should be in the future determined bysetting interest rate on reserves; second, that the rate should adjustedaccording to a policy rule; and third, that the resulting large reservebalances at the Fed should not be used for discretionary interventionist policies, such as quantitative easing, which he argues have done littlegood. We may hear some discussion about whether political economy considerations render the third point hard to achieve in practice.
David Papell’s paper provides a statistical foundation for the overall theme.He uses formal statistical techniques to determine when in history monetarypolicy was rule-like, and he finds the rule-like periods coincide remarkably well with periods of good economic performance. A clear policyrecommendation emerges directly from his statistical findings.
Marvin Goodfriend’s historical review of the Fed’s first century leads him torecommend a new “Fed-Treasury Credit Accord” which would have a “Treasuriesonly” asset acquisition policy with exceptions only in the case ofwell-specified lender of last resort actions. This would deal with there current mission creep problem where a limited purpose institution takes onother actions for which it was not granted independence.
Michael Bordo’s key policy recommendation nicely dovetails with MarvinGoodfriend’s. He recommends, again based on an examination of the history ofthe Fed, that, in order to prevent and deal with crises, the central bank needsto lay out and to announce a systematic rule for its lender of last resortactions, linking his policy recommendation to what has worked and what has notworked in practice.
Lee Ohanian puts monetary policy in the context of big real economic shocksthat are caused in large part by other economic policies—a situation which manyhave argued characterizes the economic situation today. He finds thatdiscretionary Fed policy responses to these major shocks have in some cases,negatively impacted the economy. Also timely is his warning that overestimatingthe risks of deflation can lead monetary policy astray.
Andrew Levin recommends that a good communications strategy for systematicmonetary should recognize that that the reference policy rule may change overtime. He usefully focuses on the possibility of a change in theterminal or equilibrium federal funds rate, such as a decline from 4 percentnow assumed by most FOMC members to perhaps as low as 2 percent as Richard Clarida has argued in a new paper with Bill Gross his colleague at PIMCO.
And we will also hear from Richard Clarida that policy rules work quite well inan international setting and lead to a smoother operating global monetarysystem with smaller spillovers. He also argues that a policy ruleframework will “re-emerge as the preferred de facto if not de jure constructfor conducting, evaluating, and ultimately for communicating monetary policy” Here his use of the word de jure is important for itsuggests that some legislation may be needed to bring these reforms about and keep them in place.
本帖隐藏的内容
CB_Stanford.zip
(3.65 MB)
本附件包括：- 2014PapellDeviationsfromRules-BasedPolicy.pdf
- 2014BordoLOLR-revised.pdf
- 2014ClaridaMonetaryPolicyinOpenEconomies-revised.pdf
- 2014GeorgeStanfordHoover052914.pdf
- 2014GoodfriendLessonsfromaCenturyofFedPolicy.pdf
- 2014LevinThe DesignandCommunicationofSystematicMonetaryPolicyStrategies-revised.pdf
- 2014MeltzerFederalReserveIndependence.pdf
- 2014OhanianMonetaryPolicyintheMidstofBigShocks.pdf
- 2014OpeningRemarks-JBT-May 29.pdf
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