IMF 世界经济展望 - 2014.1-经管之家官网！

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这个是IMF的世界经济展望（World Economic Outlook）一年发表两期（4月，10月），1月与7月则分别发表10月与4月的修订本（World Economic Outlook Update）。该期刊代表了IMF经济学家对于中短期世界经济发展的官方看法，涵盖了大部分发达国家和发展中国家，以及一些经济热点的分析。附件里上传的是最新的2014年1月修订本（共3页）和2013年10月刊（共251页）。帖子里的内容是IMF首席经济学家Olivier Blanchard对于1月份修订本的总结。我归纳如下，希望对大家有帮助：

· 世界经济复苏正在加强，2014年全球经济增长将达到3.7%。

· 世界经济复苏是符合预期的。

· 但是，复苏仍然是疲软的，不平衡的。美国的表现将好于欧洲，欧洲核心国家的表现将好于欧洲边缘国家。

· 我们的经济预测存在两个风险：一，发达国家货币政策的正常化将打乱国际资本流动的方向。二，尽管我们预测欧元区将有低通胀，但出现通货紧缩是有可能的。而且通货紧缩越严重，对于欧元区的复苏越不利。

Is the world recovery really strengthening?

Olivier Blanchard, 27 January 2014

The global economy seems to be on the mend. In this column, IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard provides a quick overview of the likely developments. The key points are that the recovery is happening as expected, but it remains fragile and uneven across major economies. Normalising monetary policy poses risks for vulnerable emergingmarkets and deflation is a real concern for the Eurozone.

The IMF’s January 2014 World Economic Outlook Update has three main messages:

• First, the recovery is strengthening.
  

We forecast world growth to increase from 3% in 2013 to 3.7% in 2014. We forecast growth in advanced economies to increase from 1.3% in 2013 to 2.2% in 2014. And we forecast growth in emerging market and developing economies to increase from 4.7% in 2013 to 5.1% in 2014.

• Second, this recovery was largely anticipated.
  

We have revised our forecast for world growth in 2014 by just 0.1% relativeto our October forecast. The basic reason behind the stronger recovery is that the brakes to the recovery are progressively being loosened. The drag from fiscal consolidation is diminishing. The financial system is slowly healing. Uncertainty is decreasing.

• Third, it is still a weak and uneven recovery.
  

Among advanced economies, it is stronger in the US than in Europe, stronger in the euro core than in Southern Europe. In most advanced economies,unemployment remains much too high. And downside risks remain.
Tour d’horizon
The recovery is far from even.
US growth appears increasingly solid. Private demand is strong. As a result of the December budget agreement, fiscal consolidation, which weighted ongrowth in 2013, will be more limited in 2014. These factors lead us to forecast 2.8% growth for 2014, compared to 1.9% in 2013. While monetary policy remains very accommodative, the focus is increasingly turning to monetary policy exit, and we expect the policy rate to rise in 2015.
Japan grew at 1.7% in 2013, and we forecast the same growth rate for 2014.This is good news. But this growth has come largely from fiscal stimulus andfrom exports. For growth to be sustained, consumption and investment have totake the relay. And the Japanese government will continue to face the challenge of achieving enough fiscal consolidation to reassure debt holders while not slowing down the recovery – a difficult challenge.
Conditions are increasingly favourable in the UK and the Eurozone corenations. Public debts are on sustainable paths, and fiscal consolidation is,rightly, slowing down. Credit conditions are favourable. This leads us to predict growth of 2.4% for the UK, 1.6% for Germany, although only 0.9% for France, where confidence is still low.
Southern Europe continues to be the more worrisome part of the worlde conomy. We forecast positive growth for 2014, but this growth is fragile. On the one hand, exports are strong. On the other hand, internal demand is weak, suffering from the loops between weak activity, weak banks, weak firms, and the need for fiscal consolidation. Sustained growth will require cutting those loops, and relying both on external and internal demand.
Emerging market and developing economies
We forecast that growth in emerging market and developing economies, while lower than in the past, will remain high. On the one hand, these countries will benefit from higher advanced growth in advanced economies. On the other, as US monetary policy normalises, they will face tighter financial conditions. We believe that, for most countries, the first effect will dominate the second. On the internal front, perhaps the main challenge is faced by China, which needs to contain the building of risks in the financial sector without excessively slowing growth, a delicate balancing act.
Risks to outlook
We see two main risks to the outlook.

• First, as the recovery takes hold in advanced economies, a main challenge will be to normalise monetary policy.
  

While some of this expected normalisation has already been priced in bothlong rates and exchange rates, we can expect complex and sometimes disruptive capital movements across countries for some time to come. In that environment,the evidence from last year is that emerging market economies with weak macro frameworks may be most affected. What we need to decrease this risk is both clear communication by advanced economies’ central banks, and stronger domestic policies in those emerging market economies under stress.

• Second, while our baseline forecasts are for low but positive inflation in the Eurozone, the risk is that inflation turns into deflation.
  

There is nothing magical about the number zero – when inflation turns to deflation. But the lower the inflation rate, and a fortiori the larger the deflation rate, the more dangerous it is for the Eurozone recovery.
Deflation means higher real interest rates, higher public and private debt burdens, lower demand, lower growth, and further deflation pressure. To avoid that risk, accommodative monetary policy by the ECB remains of the essence. And so is the strengthening of banks’ balance sheets. In this respect, carrying out the balance sheet assessment and stress test process now under way may be the most important short-term task facing the euro area today.
In short, recovery is indeed strengthening. But much work remains to be done.

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