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[世界经济热点] [专题系列] IMF: 中国应该如何开放资本项目(Capital Account Liberalization)? [推广有奖]

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wwqqer 在职认证  发表于 2014-6-24 21:31:52 |只看作者 |坛友微信交流群|倒序 |AI写论文
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对于中国准备开放资本项目, IMF在最近的文章(免费下载)中给出了一些意见,并预测会有资本净流出发生 (net outflows from both equity and bond markets)。


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Best practice

The following factors are relevant for smooth capital account opening.
  • Implemented in an environment of macroeconomic balance, fiscal discipline and tight financial system supervision. A current account surplus helps.
  • Following the textbook sequencing: short-term flows liberalized before long-term flows, inflows before outflows, and FDI before debt flows.
  • Interaction with financial sector and exchange rate reform. To succeed in establishing a market based exchange rate, exchange rate flexibility needs the two-way capital flows of a liberalized capital account; financial market liberalization helps develop a yield curve for a functioning exchange rate market and avoid the buildup of domestic foreign currency mismatches.
  • Even in the best of circumstances, the effect of capital account liberalization remains difficult to anticipate. Many relationships are highly nonlinear (Prasad and Rajan, 2008). For example, widely expected large and persistent net capital outflows in Israel and Sweden never materialized.

Five country examples

  • Poland: Pressures to finance the budget deficit forced the authorities to liberalize short-term debt flows before long-term FDI flows. However, to offset financial stability risks, intrusive bank supervision constrained flows entering through the liberalized capital account into the banking system.
  • Korea: Korea’s capital account liberalization was sequenced in an unconventional manner, liberalizing short-term bank flows before corporate flows, portfolio flow liberalization before exchange rate liberalization and FDI liberalization. This sequencing supported large external borrowing and a buildup of foreign currency mismatches in balance sheets.
  • Turkey: Capital account liberalization during the 1980s (completed by 1989) under fiscal dominance and an underdeveloped banking systems was followed by destabilizing capital inflows and two crises, in 1994 and 2001.
  • Israel: Israel implemented two capital account liberalizations: a “big bang” in 1977 that was reversed within 1½ years and a gradual liberalization in 1987–2005. The “big bang” liberalization was a 50 percent devaluation and full exchange rate and capital account liberalization in the context of underdeveloped capital markets, a lack of hedging markets, and severe macroeconomic imbalances. It was followed by large inflows that subsequently reversed. Restrictions were re-imposed in 1979. The second liberalization was accompanied by macroeconomic stabilization, followed the conventional sequencing and a careful phasing by sector (beginning with foreign residents, then new immigrants, asset managers, corporates, and finally households). Approval requirements were converted into reporting requirements resulting in an important database for monitoring vulnerabilities.
  • Sweden: Sweden liberalized bond markets first, followed by financial sector liberalization in 1985, and partial capital account deregulation beginning in 1989. Pre-1985, the financial sector was centrally planned. When bank lending was liberalized, a credit boom to satisfy pent-up demand followed, coinciding with large fiscal deficits and rising inflation. A tax change in 1991 raised the real interest rate from -1% to 4% overnight and ended the credit boom. The fixed exchange rate could not be defended absent capital controls and was allowed to float.


Conclusion
In sum, our econometric results as well as the stylized facts from past capital account liberalizations suggest three conclusions:

  • Capital account opening in China will likely be followed by substantial gross portfolio flows as global and domestic portfolio holdings adjust.
  • During the adjustment period there may be net outflows from both equity and bond markets as domestic investors seek to diversify large domestic savings. This is in contrast to what would be expected if, say, India opened its capital account.
  • Such net outflows of portfolio investment could offset pressures for reserve accumulation from net FDI or other investment inflows or current account surpluses for several years to come.


wp13189.pdf (812.47 KB)


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