德意志银行：美国石油加工行业研究报告2008年12月

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8 December 2008
DB US Integrated Oil Team
Oil painting by numbers
Paul Sankey
Research Analyst
(1) 212 250 6137
paul.sankey@db.com
Ryan Todd
Associate Analyst
(1) 212 250 8529
ryan.todd@db.com
Cutting EPS and price targets on lowered commodity deck
We have taken a two-pronged approach to valuation. Top down: taking financial
performance from quarterly results and SEC filings, we can calculate the classic
ROCE / WACC model (ROIC/WACC = EV/IC; etc.). Bottom up: we can cross check
our valuation on an asset-by-asset basis. The biggest overall risk is oil and gas
demand. For risks and valuation, please see pages 46 and 47.

Table of Contents
Summary of Changes........................................................................ 3
The Performance................................................................................ 7
`The Deck............................................................................................ 8
The Valuations ................................................................................. 10
Management matters most ............................................................ 13
EV/BOE– cheapest barrels on Wall Street..................................... 15
Reserves Replacement/Sustainability........................................... 16
Volume Growth ............................................................................... 17
Earnings Momentum....................................................................... 18
Oil’s Share in S&P 500 EPS............................................................. 19
Net income sensitivity .................................................................... 20
Upstream net income per barrel produced................................... 21
Downstream net income per barrel refined.................................. 22
Cash return to shareholders ........................................................... 23
Return on Capital Employed........................................................... 24
DCF Implied Discounted Oil Price .................................................. 25
ExxonMobil – NAV, P&L, Cashflow................................................ 26
Chevron ............................................................................................ 28
ConocoPhillips ................................................................................. 30
Occidental ........................................................................................ 32
Marathon.......................................................................................... 34
Hess .................................................................................................. 36
Murphy ............................................................................................. 38
Suncor .............................................................................................. 40
PetroCanada..................................................................................... 42
Canadian Natural Resources .......................................................... 44
Valuation Methodology, & Risks.................................................... 46

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